Many novice poker players struggle with the basic math of the game. In this article I want to show you an easy way to calculate the odds and percentages of making your hand on the turn and the river.

Number of outs X 2 + 2 = %

So if you have a flush draw and you want to know what the percentage is of hitting it in the next card, just count the total outs which in this case is 9 and times it by 2 and then add 2. So 9 X 2 + 2 = 20%, quickly converted to odds, this is 4-1 against hitting it on the NEXT card.

Percentages for hitting your hand if you go to the RIVER

If your outs number 1-8 then simply times that figure by 4 to get the percentage. So a 6 out poker hand would have a 24% chance of making it if it went all the way to the river like if you went all in and an 8 outer like a straight draw would have a 32% chance or near as damn it 2-1.

If your outs number more than 8, then simply times by 4 again but then SUBTRACT 1% for every out above 8. So if you had a massive fifteen outer, that would be 15 X 4 = 60% – 7  = 53% or in odds terms, slightly odds on and better than Even money.

A very simple formula which is not mathematically exact but it does not need to be because I use it. So now you know how to calculate outs and percentages in poker to within a couple of percent difference and can amaze your friends if you did not already know this. Someone famous once said that “Simplicity is the true genius” and I think that this applies to poker perfectly and to Texas Hold’em poker.

Because I am also a game theorist, I am constantly seeing comparisons with other fields. There is a famous Zen Buddhism quotation that really struck a chord with me. It goes, “if you are hungry then eat and if you are tired then sleep and if you are thirsty then drink”.

I apply this principle to poker, what I like about the Zen quotes is that they force you to think about the answer or in some cases answers. The connection that I choose to make in poker by applying this saying is this…..when there is weakness then attack and where there is strength then defend. This could easily be a Zen quotation but it isn’t. It is simply something that I have made up or at least I think that it was my idea.

It actually simplifies an awful lot in poker. If your opponents are betting and raising, it amazes me just how many people show signs of paranoia and start thinking that their opponents are trying to pull one on them. I am a very aggressive poker player when I decide to enter the pot but I time my entries to coincide with apparent weakness. If it has been folded around to me in the cut-off in a six handed online poker game and I raise with a 5-5 and the guy on the button has AA then that is just my misfortune….that is part of poker.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.